Four wins to Tokyo. What awaits Russia in the Olympic qualification?


For world Championships 2019 have semi-finalists, and all teams who qualified or immediately on the Olympics or its qualifying tournament, where they will play team Russia.News SMI2

First thing – read (or refresh your memory) with the rules and the course of the qualifying campaign.

Already known for 8 of the 12 participants of the Games in Tokyo

The host country – Japan

Another 7 teams qualified from the world Cup-2019, showing where the best results among the representatives of their continents:

2 from Europe – Spain (1 – 4-th place at the world Cup), France (1-4),
2 from America – Argentina (1-4), USA (5-8),
1 from Oceania – Australia (1-4),
1 from Africa – Nigeria (17),
1 from Asia – Iran (23).

The last four tickets will be drawn in a special qualifying tournament in 2020.

Already know 16 out of the 24 participants in the Olympic qualification

It’s 16 best teams at the world Cup in 2019 is one of those that never made it to Tokyo directly (regardless of continent):

Poland, Serbia, Czech Republic (5 – 8th place at the world Cup), Lithuania (9), Italy (10) Greece (11) Russia (12), Brazil (13), Venezuela (14), Puerto Rico (15) Dominican Republic (16), Germany (18), New Zealand (19), Tunisia (20), Canada (21) Turkey (22).

How to determine the remaining 8 participants qualified

The best teams from different continents in the FIBA ranking of those that never made it to the Olympics or qualify with the world Cup in 2019:

2 from Europe – now Slovenia (7th place in world rankings), Croatia (9),
2 from America – Mexico (14), Uruguay (34),
2 from Africa – Senegal (37), Angola (39),
2 from Asia and Oceania (single rating) China (30) Philippines (31).

Where, when and how will the qualification tournament

Olympic qualification will take place in June 2020 and will include four separate mini-tournaments for six teams. Each tournament will be hosted by one of the participating teams. The winner of each tournament will receive a ticket to the Olympics.

FIBA has not made an official statements according to the formula of qualification. Before the 2016 Games in Rio, when every tournament played by six teams, the system was this: two groups of three teams, two go into the playoffs and then the semifinals and finals. The draw for qualification took place in January, and the teams from one continent specifically “sow” in “baskets” together to put them in different sixes.

Representation of the continents in the Olympic qualification

11 teams from Europe – Serbia, Poland, Czech Republic, Lithuania, Italy, Greece, Russia, Germany, Turkey, Slovenia (?), Croatia (?),
7 from America – Brazil, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Canada, Mexico (?), Uruguay (?),
3 from Africa – Tunisia, Senegal (?), Angola (?),
2 from Asia – China (?), Philippines (?),
1 from Oceania – New Zealand.

Question marks in parentheses indicate that after the world championship the FIBA ranking is updated to eight teams, held in a qualified rating, may change.

So, if the tournament scheme qualifications will be the same as four years ago (which is very likely), now it is possible to estimate: what opponents will receive the national team of Russia, and how difficult it will be to get to Tokyo?

The most dangerous competitors – of course, Europeans. There are no obviously weak teams, and Serbia and Lithuania belong to the top world elite, even in the world championship in 2019 neither one nor the other is not. In these teams a lot of NBA players, they are brilliantly equipped to cope with the Russians will be extremely difficult.

Representatives from other continents is possible to allocate some of the American teams – Brazil, Puerto Rico and Canada. Although it is quite our “weight category”. All the rest – lower rank, and the smoke thinner.

Most likely, when “seeding” before the draw for the Europeans as densely Packed in three “baskets” according to their position in the ranking of FIBA. At the moment Russia is in 10th place in the strongest of the “baskets” of the Old world is not unlike those of the Serbs and Lithuanians. Our floor – the second and the third are Germans, poles and Czechs. Although the latter is due to the success in the world Cup can still rise upwards, ahead of, for example, Turkey.

The current version was published at the end of February, when I finished the qualifying tournaments of the world Cup. Before a rating is also updated after each “window” for teams. So the next version is supposed to be born next week, immediately after the tournament in China. And more change before the draw of qualification rating must not. It takes into account only results of official tournaments, and new qualifying round (now continental Championships-2021) kicks off on 20 February 2020. The seeding will probably take place in December or January.

However, for Russia, the rating is not so important. Its formula is quite complicated, but without detailed calculations can be seen – in the top European “basket” we can’t go. First, the gap is too large, and secondly, a mediocre performance at the world Cup is unlikely to bring many new points, and, thirdly, from the ranking based on tournaments of the past eight years, will drop out of EURO 2011, where our team has shown a very different result, taking the bronze medal.

Thus, neighbors in qualifying the top six we will have two European teams and a few potential outsiders no matter where. With the latest, fifth opponent possible options, but to go into the qualifying playoffs (this should just not take the last place), the Russian team needs. So all will solve the last two games, on the flight. Only by winning both, you find yourself in Tokyo.

To recap. The first conclusion: I would not like to interfere with Serbia or Lithuania. The probability here is 50 to 50, exactly half.

The second point: it would be nice to fight for the right to take a quarter of their qualification in Russia. Support of tribunes would be superfluous, and to prepare for a home tournament easier. While wanting to get this bonus, I think, will be enough.

And third, most important, to assemble an optimal or close to it composition. Not to pray on the newcomers from the first division, just as in China. Then be wary of the rivals of the calibre of Poland is not necessary, and the chance to go to the Olympics after a four-game June blitzkrieg would be real.

source: “Soviet sport”

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