Transfer the situation in Formula 1 has changed: science is preparing to replace “McLaren” to “Ferrari”, to move to Woking is preparing Daniel ricciardo, while about the future of two Champions Alonso and Vettel want completely different rumors. We tried to figure out what it all means for drivers from Russia.
The chances of a place in Formula-1 in 2021-m: 65 %
So, all sorts of fantasies about the transition of the Russian Ferrari can forget — although the example Carlos Sainz shows that in other speeches of Daniel in 2016-2017 we could have, but that really is now. What prospects lie before Cuatom in this transfer window?
The first option is obvious — to remain in “alpha Tauri” for another season. Talk about the fact that the team Franz Toast does not keep “veterans” are fed up — as you can see, keeps, and how. Another thing is that the transfer famine in the youth program of Red bull coming to an end: jüri VIPs will try to prove themselves in Super Formula, Jehan Daruvala — in Formula 2 plus “Honda” can insistently ask you to consider Yuki Tsunoda. All the candidates have their problems, but Kvyat should be alert for absolute peace of mind to confidently ahead of Pierre went Out — otherwise it is highly likely that Red bull will rid it from the Russians. Moreover, the preservation of old vehicles in 2021-m is the best opportunity for the Austrians to advance youth facing global changes in the rules.
The rise of Red bull? Frankly, this option does not look too likely. There is a feeling that Marko and Horner are not willing to give a second chance in the main team for those who failed the first attempt. If Mirel Albon can not cope and will become the new went Out, then Red bull would rather sign someone from outside, than again advance its own youth.
If we talk about other Formula 1 teams, the candidate Kvyat in theory could be of interest to “Haas” and especially “Alfa Romeo” in the light of previous ties with Daniel Ferrari. The team would get an experienced and relatively “cheap” racer for the same “alpha” this is true, because Raikkonen is not getting younger.
There’s still “Reno”, which formed a serious dent after escaping Riccardo. But to be interested in a factory team, Kvyat should spend the entire season 2020 at the higher level, relatively speaking, to repeat Sainz-2019. In this case, in fact, about Daniel can remember and the main team Red bull. If Kvyat to make a good season, the French — if not entice Alonso rather promote someone from our own youth, than take the “Varyag”.
The chances of a place in Formula-1 in 2021-m: 60 %
The transition of science — more bad news for Robert and all the other members of the Academy of Ferrari. Now none of the young people is definitely not able to repeat the rapid way LeClair: blitzkrieg in Formula 2, one season in the team average and the transition to the “Scuderia”. To get into the “Ferrari” youth can not before 2023, and that if Sainz does not disappoint and ill get along with LeClair.
However, to begin to hold and the company you just need to break in f-1. Jobs for Robert obvious: two client team Ferrari. More probable is a variant with “Alfa Romeo”, where historically, since the days of “Zauber”, runs in talents “Scuderia”. Besides the “alpha” can vozniknut two jobs: Kimi is not getting younger, and keep Giovinazzi after the contract Sainz is not much point, especially if Antonio will hold a lackluster season in 2020. We can assume that the best racer of “Ferrari” in Formula 2 has the right to count on a place in the “alpha”.
Less chance for “Haas”. There are historically prefer to work with experienced riders, but the approach may vary. In light of the precarious financial situation, “Haas” may in exchange for certain benefits to take unto himself a young representative of the “Ferrari” from signing a new two-year contract: to break in 2021 and to have time to eat the fruits in 2022-m.
So for graduates of the Academy may be formed from two openings in f-1 — the case for Robert and his performances in Formula 2. Do not forget that at the crucial moment to hold maybe a little money to help “SMP the racing” — no shame in this extra trump card there.
The chances of a place in Formula-1 in 2021-m: 10 %
Nikita’s father has long been eyeing to various Formula 1 teams (at least according to rumors). While discussions continue, Mazepin, Jr., is preparing for the second season in f-2, which need to leave behind the mistakes and give the result. However, against the Russians played by the transition of the title “ART” in the home, but not so experienced “hi-Tech”.
We believe there will be nothing quite so terrible, if his not break into the Formula-1 in 2021-m: looks like it is a normal scheme, when this season of Nikita acquires stability and becomes a regular guest on the podiums, in the following fights for the title, and 2022 receives, for example, in “Williams”. Yes, three seasons in Formula 2 is not very similar to the way a future champion, but look realistic scenario.
The chances of a place in Formula-1 in 2021-m: 1 %
The main veteran of Formula 2, perhaps didn’t break up with dreams of promotion to the main championship of the world, but the odds of that are virtually none. Against Markelov plays and the current situation in f-1 and a bad season in Super Formula, not given the chance to restart his career and make managers of Formula 1 a new look at yourself. The Russians have now enough points for a superlicense is probably the main chance of Artem in a sudden vacancy arises during the season the team, which has experienced reservists. Well and if does not work out, then you need to have a strong year in f-2 and think about moving to endurance racing.
The chances of a place in Formula-1 in 2021-m: 5 %
The racer “SMP the racing” chance of a little more than Artem, but not significantly. In contrast to 2019, Sirotkin is not affiliated with Formula 1 teams, but he continues to say experience, good reputation and willingness to perform, relatively speaking, “for food”. If “Williams”, “McLaren”, “Reno”, or some other team will suddenly open seat during the championship (e.g., God forbid, someone gets sick with coronavirus), candidacies are more logical than Sirotkin, impossible to find.
But with a full return to Formula 1 everything is difficult. There is a feeling that “SMP racing” in matters related to f-1 gradually shifts to Shvartsman, and Sirotkin have to wait for new projects in other Championships. We will be glad to be wrong.